The conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel is redrawing the global energy landscape in real time, disrupting supply routes, closing export terminals, and driving oil prices to levels not seen in years. Brent crude climbed back toward $100 a barrel Thursday as Iranian strikes on Gulf energy targets continued unabated. Analysts say the conflict is creating structural changes to energy markets that will not quickly reverse even if hostilities cease.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since fighting began on February 28, blocking roughly a fifth of global oil and gas flows. Iran struck shipping in and around the strait Thursday, including the Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree, trapping three crew members. Iraq halted crude exports, Bahrain placed residents on shelter-in-place orders, and Oman cleared its Mina Al Fahal terminal.
Brent crude rose 9% intraday to $100.29 before settling around $98, still up about 6%. West Texas Intermediate gained 8.6% to $94.75. Oil opened the year at around $60, hit $119 at the week’s peak, and is now in sustained triple-digit territory. Iran’s military warned of $200 oil, suggesting Tehran views the energy market as a theater of war.
The IEA released a record 400 million barrels of emergency crude, with the US contributing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The deliveries will begin within a week and take approximately four months to complete. President Trump framed the reserve release as part of an integrated strategy combining military and economic tools against Iran.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 a barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.2%, and European gas prices climbed 7.7%.